Tag Archives: Shopify


Our weighted average return in October was +1.5%, bringing our year-to-date net return to +15.68%.

Last month, equity markets traded up strongly and US corporate earnings continued to show impressive growth – most notably from the information technology (+22% EPS growth in Q3) and energy sectors (+156% EPS growth in Q3). According to Goldman Sachs “S&P 500 earnings grew by 7% in 3Q, the latest piece in a mosaic showing an extremely healthy operating environment for US corporates.” Furthermore, “S&P 500 earnings grew two percentage points faster than expected by consensus in 3Q. 51% of companies reported positive EPS surprises, in line with the first two quarters of 2017 and above the 15-year average of 47%.”

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Shopify (SHOP US) – We Shopped Early And Often…

Since the start of the year Shopify (SHOP:US) shares – one of our largest stock positions – have kept on rocketing upwards.

We commented on this move in this blog two months ago: Shopify Hits New Highs

It is now a “hot” stock and is garnering more and more attention every day.

We bought our first position on December 4th, 2015, and continuously added to our positions since then.

Here is what is has done since our first purchase:

Eventually, our exposure in some of our aggressive accounts reached over a 10% allocation. We cut our positions in half and now ostensibly own our exposure to Shopify for free. This is how you add “alpha” to your investments. Not by under-weighting and over-weighting positions versus their benchmark allocations.

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Shopify Hits New Highs

shop 18jan17

Yesterday, Shopify (SHOP US) powered to new highs. Shopify is a small cap stock, but we have long been intrigued by its incredible potential and ability to successful grow its sales platform. As such, it is one of our biggest equity holdings and has delivered tremendous alfa to our equity portfolios.

We first wrote about Shopify in August of last year:

LINK: Take a Look at Shopify’s #s Today

LINK: Analysts Liked Shopify’s #s

In December of 2016, ‘The Motley Fool’ recommended Shopify as a top pick, and followed up its recommendation this week:

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Analysts Liked Shopify’s #s

Equity analysts have proprietary models where they factor in a number of valuation methodologies for the companies they cover.

Yesterday’s numbers and guidance from Shopify seemed to have outdone their previous calculations.

Here’s a breakdown of analyst upgrades after yesterday’s earnings:
shop anc

And here’s yesterdays trading chart where the price kept on trekking higher on almost record volume:

shop gip

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Take a Look at Shopify’s #s Today

Picking stocks is about reading beyond headlines:

LINK: Shopify records 2Q loss

Now let’s break this down:

Shopify reports 2Q loss
***not a positive headline

Associated Press August 3, 2016Comment
OTTAWA, Ontario (AP) _ Shopify Inc. (SHOP) on Wednesday reported a loss of $8.4 million in its second quarter.

On a per-share basis, the Ottawa, Ontario-based company said it had a loss of 10 cents. Losses, adjusted for stock option expense, came to 4 cents per share.

The results exceeded Wall Street expectations. ***this is good*** The average estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for a loss of 8 cents per share.

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