Tag Archives: Historical Market Performance

OUR SEPTEMBER RESULTS

Our weighted average return in September was +0.60%, bringing our year-to-date return to +13.97%.

Equity markets continued to generate strong returns is September and bond prices weakened due to the continued prospect of higher rates in the US.

Last month, we mentioned that the energy sector looked oversold. We increased our energy exposure and benefited from a continued price recovery in energy stocks.

Our investments in base metal equities did not fare so well, but volatility is part of the price of admission in this sector and we have already seen a nice recovery in October.

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Big Picture Charts

Here is a link to Scott Grannis’s blog where he’s highlighted some interesting charts:
LINK: Big Picture Charts

The numbers are staggering.

One part that I would like you to pay particular attention to is not only long-term average equity returns, but long term-average equity returns after inflation.

If you do not put your money to work, inflation will gladly eat away at it bit by (not so little…) bit.

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OUR AUGUST 2017 RESULTS

Our weighted average return in August was +1.28%, bringing our year-to-date return to +13.29%.

Going into August, we had reduced our positions in the technology sector. We did so because we had managed to make extraordinary profits in the sector this year, and decided to focus our efforts on less crowded trades.

As such, we continued to increase our positions in base metals miners. We find this sector attractive because it is wildly under-owned and has a minute weighting in the S&P 500 index (0.1%). As a new generation of investors dreams of start-up ‘unicorns’ and ‘mining’ virtual currency, we have been taking a decidedly ‘old school’ approach and buying quality mining companies that have emerged from cyclical lows with stronger balance sheets and are poised to benefit from global economic growth.

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Gold as a Part of Portfolio

From time to time we get a request from our clients and potential clients regarding investments in gold.

In our view gold isn’t the best investment as it isn’t generating any return. Yes, it’s been able to sustain it’s purchasing power though in very long time periods, we’re talking about decades and centuries.

Furthermore, gold is quite volatile and thus investor may lose some part of their investment. Gold’s performance has varied year by year. Picture below shows that gold had a real drawdown that lasted 32 years. Are you willing to hold an asset that is underperforming other asset classes and losing money by itself?

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LINKS

What is the opportunity cost of waiting for a market correction?
LINK: Opportunity cost of waiting for a market correction

Disney to leave Netflix
Starting 2019, Netflix and chill is going to have to take place without the usual late-night session of Frozen, as the media giant announced its plans to remove its content from Netflix and start its own streaming service.

Reportedly, Disney is also going to launch an ESPN streaming service early next year, which is going to feature sports events from the NHL, MLB, MLS, collegiate sports and Grand Slam tennis.

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Ostapenko Wins The French Open!!!

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/13/sport/jelena-ostapenko-french-open-latvia-raimonds-vjonis-kristaps-porzingis-baiba-brae/index.html

Jelena Ostapenko’s French Open victory @ Roland Garros is the greatest ever individual achievement by a Latvian athlete.

Jelena’s talent is undeniable, but talent must be nurtured and harnessed for it to reach its full potential.

After her daughter’s victory, Jelena’s mother mentioned in an interview, that it had cost the family about 500,000 EUR to train their champion daughter:
LINK: Ostapenko (in Latvian)
“Now Aļona earns on her own, but in her childhood there were people that helped. Everyone helped as best they could. It takes a lot of money to raise an athlete. To get Aļona into the WTA top 100 ranking, we needed about half a million” said Jeļena Jakoļeva
(«Tagad Aļona pati pelna, bet bērnībā bija cilvēki, kuri palīdzēja. Visi pēc savas iespējas palīdzēja. Nepieciešama liela summa, lai izaudzinātu sportistu. Lai ievestu Aļonu WTA ranga pirmajā simtniekā, mums kopā vajadzēja ap pusmiljonu,» atklāja Jeļena Jakovļeva.)

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OUR MAY 2017 RESULTS

Our weighted average return in May was +0.76%, bringing our year-to-date return to +8.2%.

May marks our 16th consecutive month without an average monthly drawdown of over 1.3%. Moreover, during this timeframe, we have only had two months of negative performance (-0.10% in September 2016 and -1.29% in November 2016). This consistency of performance is not attributable to hedging strategies or active volatility management, but to successful asset allocation and choosing good investments.

For quite some time, we have profited greatly from our overweight in technology stocks such as Amazon, Google, Facebook and Netflix. In May, we took profits on many of these positions. As we were in the process of selling, we were quite aware of the fact that we might be selling too early (see our blog). However, there are times that you simply have to say ‘thank you’ and walk away for a while. For many of these stocks nothing has really changed since we were buying them heavily in December, yet all of a sudden, they are now worth 30% more. Recognizing how sentiment can change and to what degree it can propel a stock is a very important component of active investing. Not letting your imagination get away from itself is just as important. It is nice when everyone agrees with you – but it is times like these that you must apply the highest degree of self-critique and suspicion.

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Facebook – A Bargain In The Rearview Mirror

Here’s a link to an article from ABglobal.com that shows how exceeding expectations can actually make ‘expensive’ stocks seem very cheap in retrospect:

LINK: Growth Stars

This chart that illustrates the differential between Facebook’s earnings expectations and actual earnings is quite enlightening and goes to show the degree to which analysts can underestimate new business models:

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Should we buy the dip?

Last Wednesday we saw a broad sell off in global equity markets. We had not seen this degree of a sell off for quite some time. For instance, the most widely used ETF (QQQ US) of the NASDAQ 100 Composite Index fell 2.54%. The next day QQQ rose by 0.87%, and on Friday it rose again by 0.42% – closing at a level that was just 0.87% away from recent highs.

Our foremost mission is to safeguard our clients’ capital. Therefore, when faced with drawdowns of a significant amplitude, we must decide whether fight or flight is the most appropriate response. In other words, should we be selling, or should we buy the dip?

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