They’ve Talked The Talk. Can They Walk The Walk?

The price of oil has surged recently on talks of production restrictions by OPEC and Russia:

Brent:
oil

At the Schroders conference in Lisbon in September, someone made a very interesting remark: “if the OPEC guys actually thought they could pull off production cuts, the price of Brent would be up through $60 on insider trading…” I had never quite thought of that ‘insider trading’ dynamic, but it makes sense:

1) An OPEC minister or a proxy calls his broker in London
2) Buys oil futures
3) Broker gets the hint, piggybacks on the trade.
4) This starts happening at a number of London brokers
5) Oil price gets driven up on evident insider trading

The price of oil has performed well, but not “OPEC is actually cutting supply” well.

Here’s a Bloomberg article about the most recent discussions between the illustrious parties involved:

Bloomberg: Oil production cut talks

What are the odds they actually keep to plan this time around?