Monthly Archives: November 2020

Vaccines are coming, what’s next?

Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca.

Three weeks and three potential vaccines with extremely promising Phase III trial results that likely mean the first vaccinations will start within a few weeks.

These are remarkable scientific achievements well worth reading more about, but I want to focus on what this means for financial markets.

After stumbling through the darkness of much of this year, market participants finally see the light at the end of the Covid-19 tunnel. With a vaccine almost certainly coming within the next six months, and even sooner for targeted at-risk groups like doctors, nurses and other frontline workers, as well as the elderly, we can now plan ahead for a return to normalcy by next summer.

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On The Limits of Perception, The Power of Math, and Human Behavior

Here is the English version of my most recent article in Forbes Latvia. If you are heavily invested in technology stocks, you might want to pay particular attention…

I am going to tell you a story whose provenance I cannot ascertain, but that speaks to the limits of perception, the power of math, and human behavior.  

The one constant of this story is that there is a chessboard. Other key components are 1) a king or emperor, (2) a man, and (3) grains.  

Now at this point you might have guessed the story, but you will remember it the way you first heard it, and will most likely not know the alternative endings. For those of you who have no idea what I am talking about, here we go…  

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Post US Election Update

Last month, we wrote an article for Forbes magazine about how this year’s US presidential elections could impact the stock market.

https://www.axios.com/election-results-2020-trump-biden-3a07f4c7-fb4d-4d62-b18b-392ff6f1eeb5.html

Here is how our prognosis stacked up to what has come to pass over past couple of days:

The impact of mail-in votes

“The first major issue is that Covid-19 restrictions will create a very different in-person voting environment than in previous elections. It is also anticipated that there will be a record number of mail-in votes, which take considerably longer to tabulate. This means that there could still be many votes to count in the days following November 3rd.  

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