Monthly Archives: February 2019

“Markets in Turmoil”

2 months ago we saw a tweet from Charlie Bilello. It was 27th December. The tweet stated that CNBC will be airing “Markets in Turmoil” episode that night. Episodes of this particular show are aired when markets have been falling hard and everyone is scared.

The tweet also included a look back at past occasions when the show was aired and the performance of the S&P 500 index following the episodes.

We’ve updated the table to include the most recent data:

Markets in Turmoil S&P 500 close 1-week 1-month 3-month 6-month 9-month 12-month Up to 2/25/2019
2/5/2018 2649 0.30% 3.70% 2.40% 8.90% 4.30% 5.41% 7.85%
2/8/2018 2581 5.90% 7.40% 6.30% 10.40% 10.60% 7.04% 10.66%
10/11/2018 2728 1.50% 0.10% -4.35% 3.29%
10/24/2018 2656 2.10% 0.90% 0% 6.06%
12/27/2018 2489 -1.59% 7.21% 12.74%

Going back to 2010 the airing of Markets in Turmoil basically has worked as a buy signal. Every single time after the show was aired 6 months later markets were higher, the same can be said regarding periods of 9 months and 12 months.

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The History (and Future) of the Stock Market’s Biggest Sectors

Today, half of the top 10 ranking companies by market capitalization are technology and communications companies. While these companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Google) and Facebook may receive the lion’s share of attention, technology and communication companies as a whole have surged to become the dominant sector in financial markets over the past few decades. And despite the stronger fundamentals of these companies relative to the dot-com boom 20 years ago, there are still questions about the sustainability of the dominance of this sector going forward. So what does the history of the U.S. stock market tell us about sector dominance?

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Our weighted average return in January was +8.22%. Since 2015, we have generated a net return of +38.15%.

In terms of investment strategy performance, our weighted average net returns for January were (a) +2.36% for conservative strategies, (b) +7.64% for balanced strategies, and (c) +11.17% for aggressive strategies.

January was a considerably better month than December. As mentioned in last month’s commentary, US Fed Chairman Powell’s statement that the Fed was “listening closely to markets” on January 4th proved to be just what the market needed to stop panicking about the prospect of rising rates. The partial resolution of the US government shutdown added to positive sentiment, as did more positive dialogue regarding trade tariff negotiations between the US and China. As such, the S&P 500 (SPY US) rose +8.01%, Emerging Market equities surged +10.34% (EEM US) and Emerging Market bonds gained +4.78% (EMB US).

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Apple 1Q FY19 Commentary

On Tuesday, Apple reported “disappointing” 1Q FY19 results, as total revenue fell 5% y/y to only $84.3 billion. Net income was $20 billion, essentially flat y/y, while earnings per share were an all-time high of $4.18 (+7.5% y/y), although this growth was helped by a reduced share count due to buybacks. The fall in revenue was mainly attributed to iPhone revenue (61.7% of total revenue) falling 15% y/y, and management explained that this was entirely due to weakness in Greater China. Guidance for the next quarter also wasn’t very remarkable, with gross margins expected to decrease and operating expenses expected to grow. So why did the Apple’s stock price increase by almost 7% the next day?

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