Category Archives: Uncategorized

March Commentary

In March, our net weighted average return in was -1.22%. Our net average return for the month by strategy:

Conservative: +0.39%

Balanced: -0.87%

Growth: -2.85%

For the first quarter of 2021, our net weighted average return was +3.07%. Since 2015, we have generated a net weighted average return of +59.14%.

How things look

As we get further into April, markets will be focused on two things: corporate earnings and economic calendars.

Equity markets have continued their steady march upwards over the past months, operating under high expectations that company earnings will bounce back strong. From what we have seen so far, particularly in the US, those expectations are warranted.

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Sporta studijas podkāsts #9 – Kā sportisti pārvalda savas finanses

Es nesen piedalījos podkastā ar izcilo NBA spēlētāju Dāvi Bertānu un žurnālistu Reini Ošenieku. Mani aicināja piedalīties šajā sarunā jo mēs veicam investīciju pārvaldīšanu vairākiem no Latvijas top sportistiem. Runājam par to, kā sportisti pārvalda savas finanses, un kā prātīgai finanšu plānošanai var būt spēcīgs, pozitīvs efekts jebkura cilvēka dzīvē.

Sarunas galvenā tēma – Ko sportisti dara ar nopelnīto naudu?

0:00​ Ievads

05:00​ Sportista finanšu pārvaldnieks

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Artificial Intelligence and Mythmaking

The Latvian version of this article is available in print in the April 2021 issue of Forbes Latvia

Steve Jobs was a masterful storyteller.

One of his more powerful analogies was when he would talk about the impression that was made on him by an article in ‘Scientific American’ when he was twelve years old that discussed the required caloric expenditure of animals to travel a given distance. At the very top of the list was the condor. Humans, “the crown of creation,” were a third of the way down the list.

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Tesla & Disruptive Innovation

A week ago, ARK Invest – the investment firm headed by longtime Tesla enthusiast Cathie Wood – published its revised share price target for the company for 2025. It expects Tesla shares to hit $3000 by 2025, raising its previous target of $1400 a share by 2024. That is almost four times the current share price. For a stock that was up 740% in 2020. Insane.

Tesla is, of course, ARK’s biggest holding across its funds, worth over $3.2 billion on paper. It is at the heart of ARK’s investment philosophy – disruptive innovation causes rapid cost declines, cuts across sectors, and breeds further innovation.

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February Commentary

In February, our net weighted average return in was +2.67%. Our net average return for the month by strategy:

  • Conservative: +0.54%;
  • Balanced: +2.53%
  • Growth: +4.34%.

Since 2015, we have generated a net weighted average return of +61.10%.

In last month’s commentary we spoke about how an increase in vaccinations, economic reflation and fiscal spending by major economies are having a positive impact on markets. These trends continued to gather strength in February. Although there is still trepidation about current and future virus mutations, countries that have been leaders in vaccination numbers are showing lower transmission rates and lower fatalities. These are very good things for the continued global recovery.

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It’s time to stop comparing the stock market to a casino

The long-term return profiles of investing in the stock market and playing at a casino are completely inverse. Comparing them does a disservice to the approach that investors should take, and can result in a short-term speculative trading rather than long-term investing and capital growth.

The Latvian version of this article is available in print in the March 2021 issue of Forbes Latvia.

Stanley Druckenmiller is one of the greatest investors of all time. His success has been founded on a fairly simple strategy: preserving capital and riding big wins. Over 30 years he averaged returns of over 30% without a single down year. Legend.

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January Commentary

In January, our net weighted average return in was +1.63%. Our net average return for the month by strategy:

  • Conservative: +0.07%;
  • Balanced: +0.45%
  • Aggressive: +4.48%.

Since 2015, we have generated a net weighted average return of +56.92%.

Framing Markets

A common feeling over the past year, and especially the past few months as lockdowns have dragged on, has been one of exasperation.

The monotony of living under restrictions coupled with the cold and dark of winter has often made one day indiscernible from the last.

The promise of vaccines has faded and been replaced with frustration over the pace of vaccinations and concerns about their efficacy against new variants.

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A New Era in Biotechnology

Digitization and big data analysis in biotechnology are not just creating a new wave of therapies and medicines, but are creating new opportunities for investors as well.

The Latvian version of this article is available in print in the February 2021 issue of Forbes Latvia.

78 years ago a lab assistant named Mary Hunt in Illinois, USA brought a moldy cantaloupe into work. The ‘golden mold’ on this cantaloupe was instrumental in the mass production of penicillin. It helped win the Second World War for the Allies and has since saved what is estimated to be over 200 million lives.

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The oil of the 21st century

What do these cars have in common?

McLaren 720s, Fiat 500, Mini Cooper

Probably more than you think.

For one, they were all designed by the renowned designer Frank Stephenson, who has also worked for the likes of Ferrari, Ford, BMW, and Maserati.

But maybe more surprisingly, they share quite a bit under the hood too. That’s because, despite belonging to different brands and market segments, all three of these cars are likely facing production delays due to a global shortage semiconductor chips.

Semiconductors are present in almost all electronics and have been used in cars’ internal computers for decades. What is different today is that the chips going into cars are crucial components for advanced features like touch screens, navigation systems, driver-assist features and more. Concurrently, the adoption of electric vehicles is starting to accelerate meaningfully, driving further chip demand in the sector.

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OUR 2020 RESULTS

Our net weighted average return in 2020 was +18.23%. Since 2015, we have generated a net weighted average return of +54.39%.

2020 was a challenging year. We were forced to navigate an all-out panic in financial markets while weighing the staggering human costs of the Covid-19 pandemic. Shortly after what turned out to be the market lows of the year in March we wrote the following:

“The most significant reasons as to why markets have rebounded are 1) the massive rescue package passed by the US Congress, and 2) the massive balance sheet expansion by the Federal Reserve. The amount of money with which the richest country in the world is ready to attack this crisis is without comparison in the history of the world. And what you learn in capital markets is that you don’t fight against the guys that make the bullets.”

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