Kas ir risks?

Riski, jo īpaši finanšu un investīciju jomā, bieži vien tiek konceptuāli skaidroti ar skaitļiem un aprēķiniem, bet šāda pieeja ignorē riskam piemītošās cilvēciskās iezīmes. Vairāk nekā vienkārši noteiktības trūkums, risks ir mūsu nespēja saprast un reaģēt uz  varbūtībām konsekventā un saskanīgā veidā un diskomforts, ko rada fakts, ka var notikt vairāk, nekā notiks. Kā mēs uztveram un piedzīvojam risku, ir vienlaicīgi ļoti unikāls mūsu personiskās pieredzēs dēļ un tomēr uz to attiecas mūsu kopējie uzvedības ierobežojumi.

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Ko zināt par sociāli atbildīgu ieguldīšanu

Mūsdienās ilgtspējas ideja ir kļuvusi arvien nozīmīgāka visos mūsu dzīves aspektos, ieskaitot ieguldījumus. Cilvēkiem ir svarīgi zināt, no kurienes ir nākuši produkti, ko tie patērē, kā viņu produkcija ir ietekmējusi vidi un kāda ir attieksme pret strādniekiem, kas tos ražo. Investori arī ir gatavi balsot ar saviem makiem un ieguldīt tikai tajos uzņēmumos, kas ievēro ESG (vides, sociālos un pārvaldības) kritērijus. Šī ideja ir ļoti pievilcīga, jo ļauj investoriem justies labi par to, kur viņi liek savai naudai strādāt, tādēļ nav pārsteigums, ka ir paradījušās neskaitāmas ESG ieguldījumu iespējas, lai apmierināt šo pieprasījumu.  

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OUR JUNE RESULTS

Our weighted average return in June was +4.54%. Since 2015, we have generated a net return of +33.44%.

In terms of investment strategy performance, our weighted average net returns for June were (a) +1.88% for conservative strategies, (b) +4.76% for balanced strategies, and (c) +5.59% for aggressive strategies.

Stocks rallied in June following the false tariff escalation with Mexico at the end of May, and the S&P 500 ended the quarter near all-time highs. Hopes for reduced trade tensions between the U.S. and China following the Tokyo G-20 Summit ‘truce’ helped drive the rally, but it is hard to perceive any real progress. Although both sides agreed that they would not increase tariffs and China committed to purchase more U.S. goods, this is very similar to the ‘truce’ reached seven months ago at the previous G-20 summit. This protracted dispute has pushed down trade and business confidence worldwide, with the manufacturing sector in most Asian countries declining and expectations of an economic recession in Germany seen as inevitable (Germany’s high dependence on exports and the Chinese market means ever greater uncertainty until the customs dispute is resolved). Without actual trade deals that provide certainty to businesses, global growth will not be picking up.

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Pirkt un turēt – vienkārši, ne viegli

Ja tev būtu jāizvēlas starp ieguldījumiem divos uzņēmumos, tikai skatoties uz akcijas cenas grafikiem, kurā tu būtu vairāk gribējis ieguldīt 2000.g. sākumā?

1.

2.

Esmu pārliecināts, ka lielākā daļa no jums izvēlētos pirmo variantu. Apsveicu! Šis grafiks ir Amazon, pasaules 2. vērtīgākais uzņēmums. Ja būtu nopircis šo akciju 2000.g. janvārī, un turējis to līdz šodienai, tavs ieguldījums būtu pieaudzis par 2 157%!

Ja Amazon grafiks likās pievilcīgāks redzamās straujās izaugsmes dēļ, šeit ir daži pārsteidzoši fakti. Ja būtu pircis Amazon 2000.g. janvārī, 2001.g. oktobrī tu būtu zaudējis 93% no savas ieguldītās naudas. Paietu vēl 6 gadi, pirms tu būtu atguvis savu pamatkapitālu 2007.g. septembrī. 20 gadu griezumā bilde ir smuka, bet diez vai tu šajos pirmos gados baigi lepotos par savu izvēli.

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Jo ilgāk, jo labāk

Ieslīgšana akciju tirgus ikdienas, nedēļas un pat mēneša apritē var būt nogurdinoša pieredze. Jautājumi par tirgu labklājību tiek apspriesti katru dienu finanšu medijos, ar neskaitāmu daudzumu ekspertu viedokļu, statistiku, ekonomisko rādītāju utt. Ir iespējams atrast visvisādus iemeslus, kāpēc tirgi ir kāpušies vai kritušies, kā arī prognozes (robežās no ārkārtīgi pozitīvām līdz apokaliptiskām) par nākotni.

Īstermiņa tirgus kustības arī var radīt stresu. Sekot līdzi ASV tirgum (S&P 500) šo pēdējo gadu ir bijis kā braukt pa amerikāņu kalniņu. No 2018.g. jūnija beigām līdz 20. septembrim, tirgus vērtība izauga aptuveni 8%, sasniedzot savu vēsturiski augstāko līmeni, bet tad līdz Ziemassvētkiem nokritās gandrīz 20%. Nākamos četros mēnešos notika strauja izaugsme un 30. aprīlī tirgus atkal sasniedza savu vēsturiski augstāko līmeni. Maijā tirgus atkal piedzīvoja kritienu un zaudēja gandrīz 7%. Šonedēļ atkal tika sasniegti vēsturiski augstākie līmeņi. Un kas tad kopumā ir noticis pēdējo 12 mēnešu laikā? S&P 500 ir izaudzis aptuveni 10%.   

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OUR MAY RESULTS

Our weighted average return in May was -5.69%. Since 2015, we have generated a net return of +27.73%.

In terms of investment strategy performance, our weighted average net returns for May were (a) -0.33% for conservative strategies, (b) -5.51% for balanced strategies, and (c) -8.21% for aggressive strategies.

May was a difficult month. At the start of the month, US President Donald Trump announced that contrary to all hopes and expectations, the US would in fact be going ahead with their tariffs on Chinese imports. All risk assets sold off on this news. Trump’s decision to go after Chinese technology company Huawei led to a particularly sharp selloff in the technology components and semiconductor space. Then, on the very last day of the month, Trump also threatened Mexican imports with tariffs. Thankfully, these tariffs were cancelled a couple of weeks later and risk assets have been recovering in June. In May, the S&P 500 lost -6.58%, the Dow fell -6.69%, the NASDAQ shed -7.93% and the Russell 2000 closed down -7.90%. International equities also took a hit. Japan was off -4.87% while German markets lost -6.53% and Chinese large caps fell -9.26%.

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Par atšķirībām

Es nesen gāju pirkt jaunu televizoru un nevarēju saprast, kuru izvēlēties. LED vai OLED, Full HD vai UHD, 4K, 5K vai 8K… kāda atšķirība?

Ja kādreiz televizors bija liels pirkums, kas tev kalpotu ilgus gadus, tad mūsdienās cilvēki tos maina tikpat bieži, cik viedtālruņus. Tas, kas kādreiz bija ieguldījums, arvien vairāk sāk līdzināties parastai patēriņa precei. 

Bet, ja par televizoru var teikt “kāda atšķirība?”, tad par finanšu ieguldījumiem tā noteikti nevar. Šeit ir dažas svarīgas lietas, kas ir jāņem vērā, runājot un domājot par investīcijām.

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OUR APRIL RESULTS

Our weighted average return in April was -1.59%. Since 2015, we have generated a net return of +35.44%.

In terms of investment strategy performance, our weighted average net returns for April were (a) +0.56% for conservative strategies, (b) +0.13% for balanced strategies, and (c) -4.09% for aggressive strategies.

In April, many of the themes that had been troubling markets over the past several months were provided some temporary reprieve thanks to positive news flow. After a very turbulent end to 2019, analysts had cut their earnings targets for US companies. However, Q1 earnings have delivered positive earnings surprises, which helped restore investor confidence. As such, US stocks performed well, but the gains were mainly attributable to multiple expansions rather than impressive earnings growth.

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OUR MARCH RESULTS

Our weighted average return in March was +0.10 %. Since 2015, we have generated a net return of +37.64%.

In terms of investment strategy performance, our weighted average net returns for February were (a) +1.01% for conservative strategies, (b) +0.30% for balanced strategies, and (c) -0.46% for aggressive strategies.

March was another positive month for financial markets. In December, markets sold off strongly on fears that the US Fed would continue to raise rates. The Fed buckled and now markets are pricing in the likelihood of a rate cut rather than a rate hike. Both bonds and stocks continued to gain strength on the back of this sentiment. Last month, the S&P 500 (SPY US) rose +1.81%, the MSCI Emerging Market index (EEM US) gained +1.13%, High Yield US corporate bonds (HYG US) rose +1.29%, Emerging Market bonds (EMB US) gained +1.51% and US investment grade bonds (BND US) returned +1.94%.

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OUR FEBRUARY RESULTS

Our weighted average return in February was -0.47%. Since 2015, we have generated a net return of +37.50%.

In terms of investment strategy performance, our weighted average net returns for February were (a) +0.79% for conservative strategies, (b) -0.88% for balanced strategies, and (c) -0.53% for aggressive strategies.

Financial markets continued their positive trend in February, fueled by more encouraging US-China trade talks and heightened confidence that the Fed would not be raising rates in the near future. “Lower rates for longer” translated into higher prices for high yield debt across all markets and equities continued their positive trend. In February, the S&P 500 (SPY US) rose +3.24%, High Yield US corporate bonds (HYG US) rose +1.21%, Emerging Market bonds (EMB US) gained +0.40% and US investment grade bonds (BND US) returned -0.09%.

I am at a loss to report anything of note that actually happened in financial markets or world politics in February. Brexit discussions dragged on. Tariff implementation was extended and trade deal discussions continued without any actual agreements. Softer Chinese economic data was interpreted to mean greater Chinese stimulus going forward, but Chinese industry seems to be more concerned about tariffs. European growth continued to be anemic. European industry is also worried about tariffs. Data revealed that German economic growth was flat in the last quarter of last year.

Only the US showed that, despite the impact of the government shutdown, everything seemed to be going fairly well. Data showed that US GDP grew +2.6% in the fourth quarter. This was slower than the previous 3.4% quarter on quarter annualized growth rate in Q3, but showed that the US economy continues to be on a strong footing.

Looking at our investment performance, we were pleased at the returns for our conservative strategies, but our security selection let us down in our balanced and aggressive mandates. Long-term outperformance can only be achieved by high conviction stock picking, and some of our conviction holdings had a sub-par February. In terms of investment strategy, we continue to look for interesting companies that have not participated in the recent rally, but stand to benefit from continued lower interest rates and moderate economic growth.

On behalf of our Client Portfolio Management team, I thank you for your continued trust and support!
Pauls
FULL DISCLOSURE: Please note that the opinions expressed in this blog should in no way be considered as investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities.

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