September Commentary

Through August our year-to-date net weighted average return was +4.99%. Our net average return by strategy:

Conservative: +4.26%

Balanced: +4.92%

Growth: +5.72%

Since 2015, we have generated a net weighted average return of +62.09%.

Market Update

It has been said that bull markets end in one of two ways: They climb the wall of worry until there is no more worry and the markets run out of steam as widespread investor euphoria exhausts the availability of the next marginal buyer. Alternatively, a negative shock with the power to destroy global GDP in the magnitude of trillions of dollars comes out of nowhere and surprises everyone, leading to a mad rush for the exits.

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April Commentary

In April, our net weighted average return in was +3.45%. Our net average return for the month by strategy:

Conservative: +1.83%

Balanced: +2.61%

Growth: +5.96%

Through the first four months of 2021, our net weighted average return was +6.62%. Since 2015, we have generated a net weighted average return of +64.62%.

An optimistic earnings season

In the US, the strong improvement in the economic and business outlook has been a common theme in management earnings commentary. Depending on their state of reopening, managements range from optimistic that pent-up demand will jump-start growth to confident that the currently strong strides in recovery will continue. Even those in particularly COVID-sensitive sectors, like airlines, are confident that demand will bounce back once all restrictions are lifted.

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Copper – The Key to a Green Future

The Latvian version of this article is available in print in the May2021 issue of Forbes Latvia

Over the next seven years, the EU has budgeted 1.8 trillion euro – or 60 times Latvia’s current GDP – to help rebuild “a greener, more digital and more resilient” post-COVID-19 Europe. The largest share of this astounding amount of money, around 1 trillion euros, will go towards the fiscal embodiment of what the EU considers to be “cohesion, resilience and values.”

What does that mean? Well, according to the money pledged to the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), in order for EU members to access the majority of this funding, a minimum of 37% must go towards climate investments and reforms, while a minimum of 20% must go towards fostering digitization.

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March Commentary

In March, our net weighted average return in was -1.22%. Our net average return for the month by strategy:

Conservative: +0.39%

Balanced: -0.87%

Growth: -2.85%

For the first quarter of 2021, our net weighted average return was +3.07%. Since 2015, we have generated a net weighted average return of +59.14%.

How things look

As we get further into April, markets will be focused on two things: corporate earnings and economic calendars.

Equity markets have continued their steady march upwards over the past months, operating under high expectations that company earnings will bounce back strong. From what we have seen so far, particularly in the US, those expectations are warranted.

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Sporta studijas podkāsts #9 – Kā sportisti pārvalda savas finanses

Es nesen piedalījos podkastā ar izcilo NBA spēlētāju Dāvi Bertānu un žurnālistu Reini Ošenieku. Mani aicināja piedalīties šajā sarunā jo mēs veicam investīciju pārvaldīšanu vairākiem no Latvijas top sportistiem. Runājam par to, kā sportisti pārvalda savas finanses, un kā prātīgai finanšu plānošanai var būt spēcīgs, pozitīvs efekts jebkura cilvēka dzīvē.

Sarunas galvenā tēma – Ko sportisti dara ar nopelnīto naudu?

0:00​ Ievads

05:00​ Sportista finanšu pārvaldnieks

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Artificial Intelligence and Mythmaking

The Latvian version of this article is available in print in the April 2021 issue of Forbes Latvia

Steve Jobs was a masterful storyteller.

One of his more powerful analogies was when he would talk about the impression that was made on him by an article in ‘Scientific American’ when he was twelve years old that discussed the required caloric expenditure of animals to travel a given distance. At the very top of the list was the condor. Humans, “the crown of creation,” were a third of the way down the list.

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Tesla & Disruptive Innovation

A week ago, ARK Invest – the investment firm headed by longtime Tesla enthusiast Cathie Wood – published its revised share price target for the company for 2025. It expects Tesla shares to hit $3000 by 2025, raising its previous target of $1400 a share by 2024. That is almost four times the current share price. For a stock that was up 740% in 2020. Insane.

Tesla is, of course, ARK’s biggest holding across its funds, worth over $3.2 billion on paper. It is at the heart of ARK’s investment philosophy – disruptive innovation causes rapid cost declines, cuts across sectors, and breeds further innovation.

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February Commentary

In February, our net weighted average return in was +2.67%. Our net average return for the month by strategy:

  • Conservative: +0.54%;
  • Balanced: +2.53%
  • Growth: +4.34%.

Since 2015, we have generated a net weighted average return of +61.10%.

In last month’s commentary we spoke about how an increase in vaccinations, economic reflation and fiscal spending by major economies are having a positive impact on markets. These trends continued to gather strength in February. Although there is still trepidation about current and future virus mutations, countries that have been leaders in vaccination numbers are showing lower transmission rates and lower fatalities. These are very good things for the continued global recovery.

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It’s time to stop comparing the stock market to a casino

The long-term return profiles of investing in the stock market and playing at a casino are completely inverse. Comparing them does a disservice to the approach that investors should take, and can result in a short-term speculative trading rather than long-term investing and capital growth.

The Latvian version of this article is available in print in the March 2021 issue of Forbes Latvia.

Stanley Druckenmiller is one of the greatest investors of all time. His success has been founded on a fairly simple strategy: preserving capital and riding big wins. Over 30 years he averaged returns of over 30% without a single down year. Legend.

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January Commentary

In January, our net weighted average return in was +1.63%. Our net average return for the month by strategy:

  • Conservative: +0.07%;
  • Balanced: +0.45%
  • Aggressive: +4.48%.

Since 2015, we have generated a net weighted average return of +56.92%.

Framing Markets

A common feeling over the past year, and especially the past few months as lockdowns have dragged on, has been one of exasperation.

The monotony of living under restrictions coupled with the cold and dark of winter has often made one day indiscernible from the last.

The promise of vaccines has faded and been replaced with frustration over the pace of vaccinations and concerns about their efficacy against new variants.

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